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The difficulty in predicting the Indian monsoon by climate models is also linked with the fact most climate models have some systematic deficiency in simulating the present day climate correctly. These deficiencies are related to inability of the models in representing some of the physical process with fidelity. The climate like the Indian monsoon is a result of energy balance not only over the monsoon region but over the entire globe. The heating distribution, in turn, depends not only on the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation but also on the latent heat released by the clouds when water vapour condenses to become rain. The heating and cooling leads to pressure differences and winds are forced by such pressure gradients, However, it is the lifting of air by convergence of air mass by winds or winds blowing against mountains that lead to condensation of water vapour and rain.

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The ancient Harappan Civilization emerged, flourished and collapsed under a steadily weakening monsoon, according to new research findings, that scientists say, provide the strongest evidence yet to link its risk and fall to changing climate. A team of scientists has combined multiple sets of date to show that weakening monsoon and reduced river water initially stimulated intensive agriculture and urbanisation, but later precipitated the decline and collapse of the subcontinent's earliest cities. The scientist said their research also suggests that a larger river, summed to be the mythical Saraswati, which once watered the Harappan Civilization's heartland between the suggests it was a glacier fed river with origins in the Himalyas. The findings appear today in the US Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science